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1.1

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1.2

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1.3

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1.4

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1.

1.1

" 1995 INTERNATIONAL FINANCIAL STATISTICS YEARBOOK "

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1.2

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( , , , IM = f (

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D1 -

2 D-

. 1990

.

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RM = f ( RR , RY , RE , INF , D1 , D2 )

1.3

RM - ( )

RE - ( " )

RR - ( - % )

INF - ( % )

RY - ( )

D1 - 1974 - 1977

2D - " " .

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1.4

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2.

2.1

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2. [pic]

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( ' ) :

RM. = 5.990127 - 1.1724756 * RE + 1.9601755 * RR + 1.5643704 * INF+

+ 0.3055253 * RY - 9. 8921502 * D1 - 8.3802476 * D2

" : 0.956625

2.2

: 95% . a = 0.05.

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n=33 , d = 7 ,a= 0.05 , c = 6

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3.

3.1

95% .

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RM=-0.7966953 RE+0.1556901 INF+0.3503278 RY-7.3703343 D1-8.9045264 D2

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95% . .

1961-1993 :

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1961-1993 :

RM= -0.7695981 RE+0.3521087 RY-7.1427263 D1-8.7903369 D2

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4.1

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rRE,RY = -0.9143375

rRR,INF = -0.8841962

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RE - RY RR -

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5.1 . .

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RE -RY

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* RE - - -0.7695981

* RY - - 0.3521087 ,

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* 1D - - 1974-1977.

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* 2D - " " 1990-1993 .

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5.2

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0.3521087 .

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